Basketball and gambling have more similarities than you would imagine. It is beneficial to have a tried-and-true method to be successful in any endeavor, and betting on the NBA is no exception. When it comes to betting, having a well-defined set of rules that you can apply to every single game regardless of who’s on the court gives you the same kind of edge.
Is NBA Betting Profitable? Fortunately, you don’t have to start from zero with your betting method. When you place bets on your favorite teams, there are already numerous proven techniques that you may try and there’s no restriction against copying and then enhancing the techniques that gamblers before you have utilised successfully.
Below is a list of the better-known systems and money-management tactics which when paired with a knowledge of the game and used with real-time NBA odds can become potential money-spinners in the NBA betting market.
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The System of Blowout
When an NBA team wins by 15 points or more, you may imagine they’re on a roll and will win their next game by double digits as well. In most cases, however, the reverse is true.
The team is coming off such a high after thrashing their opponents that they tend to relax into the next game and concentration levels are not as focused. Sports Insights’ data crunchers discovered that home favorites of 10 points or more coming off of a 15-point victory beat the spread just 42.5 percent of the time.
The System of High Totals
Few techniques are simpler to understand and execute than Allen Moody’s High Totals System, which he developed while working as a sports betting expert and author of Becoming a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics.
Moody noticed that bookmakers often understate game totals for NBA non-conference games and started taking the over on any games with a total point cumulative of 220. It’s a straightforward technique, but it paid off handsomely because he was accurate. From 2004-05 to 2008-09, all games satisfying that criterion scored 63.5 percent of the time.
The System of Bounce Back
NBA clubs who have had a terrible offensive performance have a surprising ability to bounce back during their following home game. Statistics display that home teams who had a bad offensive performance (albeit they could not define “poor” but to say an unexpected loss or losing by more than expected by the bookmakers spreads) would bounce back in the next game.
Whether it was because of the loss stinging the players or the team suffering an embarrassing defeat, the next game they would sharpen their focus and beat the spread.
In recent years, the NBA has made an effort to decrease the number of back-to-back games, but it is not uncommon for games to occur in which both teams are playing their third game in four nights. The statisticians discovered that teams playing in this circumstance outperform the anticipated point total just under 60% of the time.
Defense requires far more work than offensive, and most athletes play defense with significantly less vigour. When teams play three times in four nights, the tiredness creeps in and the total points total is overshot.
The D’Alembert Method
The D’Alembert System is a progressive betting technique. However, owing to its more conservative character, it involves far less financial risk. When using this method, you choose a stake amount and raise it by the same increment if you lose and lower it by the same increment if you win.
Assume you’ve decided to place a $200 bet. You place a $200 wager on the result of a game using this amount as your starting point. If you lose, you gamble $250 on the result of another game the following night. If you lose again, you place a $300 wager on the next game. If you win that game, you return to a $250 stake on the next game, and so on.
The D’Alembert System is less profitable than the Martingale System (explained below) in general, but it appeals to betters with lower bankrolls who are less risk-averse.
The Martingale Method
It is difficult to win every bet, but by using the Martingale System, you may win in the long term. This progressive betting method calls for you to double your bets on a certain team’s game totals until they win.
Assume you bet on a game where you do your statistical studies, and decide that the team you are placing a bet on will score more than what the bookmakers are expecting. You decide to wager $200 on your team scoring more than that points total. If you win your bet and collect a good profit.
However, if they fail, the Martingale System asks you to accept defeat and double your wager to $400 in the next game. If you win, you take the profit and reset to your original stake of $200 for your next bet. If you lose, you double up again on your next bet to $800.
Patience, a big Bankroll & Statistical Tendencies
If you continue losing with all the double-ups, and your Bank is depleted, then you have to either stop, cut your losses and return to your original stake of $200. However, if you’ve done your studies, and believe in your system, and have the patience and the bankroll to continue, you will be rewarded.
When using the Martingale System, take into account a team’s current scoring average, player match-ups, crucial injuries, and the tempo of play for both sides. These variables will go a long way toward accurately predicting what the outcome should be for the particular bet you are making, and how that could differ from the bookmakers’ odds.
Betting on the NBA is not for the faint-hearted. You need to have a system, believe in it, and have the patience and some instances the bankroll to continue betting when others will stop. If, like all the supporters of the NBA, you live and breathe basketball, betting in this sphere can become a lucrative and profitable pastime over the long term.